1. The sun and other natural forces cause global warming and cooling. The sun provides nearly 100% of the heat reaching Earth's upper atmosphere. Many other factors (17 or more) determine how much of that heat is temporarily retained to provide warmth for an inhabitable planet. Some factors, such as the tops of low clouds, ice, and snow, reflect most of the incoming ultraviolet rays back into space before they can heat Earth's surface. Other surfaces reflect less. Greenhouse gases temporarily trap some of the heat that is absorbed into Earth's surface and is then radiated upward as infrared rays. This helps keep Earth's atmosphere warm instead of all of the radiated heat escaping to space. To see a summary of 18 factors, including CO2, that help determine Earth's climate drivers, climate and climate change, see below. Also, to view the reflectivity of Earth's various surfaces, referred to as Earth's albedo, see the chart below titled ALBEDO. To see expanded write-ups on each of the 18 drivers, refer to "Fire, Ice and Paradise" in the recommended reading list.
3. Water vapor is responsible for clouds, humidity, rain, sleet and snow and up to 90% of the greenhouse effect. Water vapor also represents about 95% of all greenhouse gasses and is responsible for up to 90% of the greenhouse gas effect. It is in water vapor’s contribution to cloud formation that leaves scientists wondering if water vapor’s contribution to global climate change is currently positive, negative or about neutral. Clouds, which are very bright on top, can reflect back into space a high percentage of the sun’s incoming rays that would otherwise heat the Earth but they can also help trap more heat. While climate models can be “tuned” to give a desired result in either direction, empirical (real) observations of Earth’s climate history indicate that water vapor’s current contribution to global climate change is probably neutral to negative. Otherwise, there would or could be runaway global warming because a temperature rise could cause a CO2 rise and if the CO2 rise caused a positive feedback, the cycle would continue on and on, which it has never done in Earth’s measurable climate history of the last 540 million years. Read more >>
4. Earth’s atmosphere contains about 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen and less than 1% other gasses, including only .0400% CO2. Earth's atmosphere consists of approximately 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, a varying 0 to 4% of water vapor at any one place and a small, 0.0400%, amount of CO2 and a few other trace gasses. The amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is very small but that small amount delivers a huge impact on the plant and animal kingdoms. By simply increasing this small amount of CO2 almost twofold, thousands of peer reviewed studies indicate that the result would be a tremendous "greening" of Earth as well as most individual ecosystems and habitats. To actually reduce CO2 levels as some extremists groups propose, would be catastrophic to the hundreds of millions of people (and animals) currently living on the edge of starvation.
6. Changes in atmospheric CO2 FOLLOW temperature changes. This fact came as a shock to most scientists and climate laymen. It was first revealed in a very careful ice core analysis by Hubertus Fischer, et. al., in Science magazine in 1999. Since then, other scientists from around the world studying multiple ice cores have corroborated Fischer's finding. They have found that the average lag of CO2 change is about 800 years, apparently long enough for the oceans to begin warming sufficiently to cause a net release of CO2 into the atmosphere or, on the other hand, to cool it enough if temperatures are falling, to begin to have a net absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere. This lag interval varies from 200 years to 1,600 years or more. Unfortunately, many, many scientists, politicians and the media took very firm positions that CO2 was causing climate change and many of them, including the media, have struggled mightily to rationalize the obvious implication of Fischer's observations. Billions and billions of dollars have been funneled into studies in the hopes of finding something that might counter this revelation. However, the additional research and empirical observations continue to indicate that CO2's role in global warming or in global climate change has been vastly overestimated. For a more recent ice core analysis, see below.
7. Earth's temperatures have never remained stable. Due to the many drivers of climate change and the different timescales of their changing influences, Earth's climate is never stable. Temperatures are either moving up or moving down whether on a weekly, monthly, yearly, millennium or longer basis. To view Earth's temperature record from the last five million years to the present, see figure below.
8. Twenty thousand years ago, a glacial ice sheet over one mile thick covered New York state. That thick sheets of ice covered much of northern North America can be seen in deposits of terminal moraines of the ice sheet's southern extent for location and for ice sheet thickness by measuring the amout of "glacial rebound" wherein the land is still rising from the unloading effect of the weight of the previously thick glacial ice. So much ice covered the continents that global sea level had fallen nearly 400 feet. Sea level reached near its current position about 7,000 years ago. This tremendous melting occurred over a 10,000 year period with no manmade climate influence so the recent advances and retreats of the glaciers are well within Earth's natural climate oscillations. (See figure below)
9. The polar ice sheet retreated to its current level without human influence. The one to two mile thick ice sheets melted in only 10,000 years and are still gradually receding, with periodic advances and retreats, due to the natural warmth of the interglacial period. More ice, if not all, probably melted during the last interglacial period of 100,000 plus years ago when Earth's temperature was 5° Celsius warmer and sea level was 19 feet higher although this previous interglacial melting probably took thousands of years to complete. Read more >>
Note the monthly global temperatures; up, down, steep rise, low rise, etc. all this despite a steady increase in CO2 that is in Earth's atmosphere 24/7, worldwide.
These charts demonstrates the lack of accuracy of the climate models and the illogic of trusting them for century-long forecasts. That the IPCC computer models cannot accurately predict Earth's past, known climate history, much less the future decades or centuries ahead, is no surprise in that the modelers did not allow for solar variations that are known to occur or for possible extraterrestrial influences that seem to correlate with climate changes better than the rise and fall of atmospheric CO2 levels. The IPCC modelers were instructed to ignore such possible effects. Yet these same models are being used to scare the public to death in order to get policies enacted just in case the science is wrong and CO2 might be having an as yet unknown effect on global warming. To take this "tilting at windmills" approach, especially because of all the known, solidly documented benefits of more, not less, atmospheric CO2, is senseless.